A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
